Quick answer
The newest US tariffs, 50% duties under Section 338 in force since August 22, 2026, fall hardest on British Columbia, Quebec, Ontario and Nova Scotia: each has roughly 10% or more of its US-bound exports on the list. Ontario also carries the older Section 232 tariffs on autos and steel, Quebec on aluminum and BC and New Brunswick on lumber.
Alberta and Saskatchewan depend most on the US relative to the size of their economies, but they mostly ship oil, gas and potash, which the Section 338 list excludes; only about 1% of their exports are covered. Manitoba has seen the steepest fall: its exports to the US were 23.6% lower in January–August 2026 than in the same months of 2024.
Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate in the November 3 US midterms, according to Associated Press projections. That does not remove any tariff by itself: the tariffs were set by presidential proclamation, the new Congress only takes office on January 3, 2027, and a repeal still needs a two-thirds vote in both chambers to override a veto.
How much each province depends on the US
Goods exports (domestic exports) to the United States from Statistics Canada table 12-10-0175-01, in Canadian dollars. GDP is 2024, the latest provincial figure available, from table 36-10-0222-01.
| Province | Exports to US, 2025 | Share of exports going to US* | US exports as % of GDP (2024) | Excluding energy | Main goods sold to the US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ontario | $190.3B | 65% | 16.2% | 16.0% | Vehicles and parts (33%), consumer goods, metals |
| Alberta | $152.0B | 83% | 34.2% | 6.1% | Oil and gas (82%), chemicals |
| Quebec | $84.3B | 69% | 14.8% | 14.1% | Aluminum and metals (22%), consumer goods, aircraft, forestry |
| British Columbia | $27.9B | 48% | 6.7% | 5.4% | Lumber and forestry (23%), energy, consumer goods, metals |
| Saskatchewan | $23.7B | 54% | 23.7% | 10.9% | Oil (54%), farm products, potash |
| New Brunswick | $14.5B | 91% | 32.7% | 21.1% | Refined fuel (39%), chemicals, forestry, seafood |
| Manitoba | $12.9B | 65% | 16.4% | 14.9% | Consumer goods (21%), farm and food, machinery, buses |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | $4.8B | 31% | 16.3% | 4.9% | Oil (52%), seafood, minerals |
| Nova Scotia | $4.6B | 70% | 7.0% | 7.0% | Tires and vehicle parts (33%), seafood, consumer goods, forestry |
| Prince Edward Island | $2.0B | 74% | 17.5% | 17.5% | Food and consumer goods (49%), seafood and potatoes |
| Canada | $517.3B | 68% | 17.6% | 12.1% | Energy (31%), vehicles and parts (14%) |
*September 2025 to August 2026, the latest 12 months. Percentages after the goods are the share of the province's 2025 exports to the US. "Excluding energy" removes energy products, which the Section 338 tariffs exempt. Goods only; services exports are not included.
- Alberta looks most exposed but is not. A third of its economy is sold to the US, but more than four-fifths of that is oil and gas. Without energy, its US exports are 6% of GDP, among the lowest of any province.
- New Brunswick and PEI are the quiet risks. New Brunswick sends 91% of its exports to the US and PEI's non-energy sales to the US are 17.5% of its economy, higher than Ontario's.
- BC is the least dependent. Less than half its exports go to the US because of its trade with Asia, yet the Section 338 list hits its US sales harder than any other province's.
Which US tariffs are in force on Canadian goods
As of November 4, 2026. Rates are added to normal duties, and since September 15, 2026 some products pay both a Section 338 and a Section 232 tariff.
| Tariff | Rate | Goods | CUSMA goods exempt? | Provinces most affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Section 338 (since Aug 22, 2026; list revised Sep 15 and Oct 30) | 50% | Over 500 products: alcohol, dairy, wood and paper products, furniture, plastics, machinery, consumer goods | No | BC, Quebec, Ontario, Nova Scotia |
| Section 338 import ban (since Sep 29, 2026) | Banned | Alcoholic beverages, certain dairy, molasses, motorcycles (about US$967 million in 2025) | No | Quebec, Ontario, BC |
| Section 232 steel and aluminum | Up to 50% | Steel, aluminum and derivative products, on full value since April 2026 | No | Ontario (steel), Quebec and BC (aluminum) |
| Section 232 autos | 25% | Vehicles and parts | Parts yes; vehicles pay on non-US content | Ontario |
| Section 232 lumber and wood products | 10%–50% | Softwood lumber (10% plus anti-dumping and countervailing duties), cabinets, vanities, upholstered furniture | No | BC, Quebec, New Brunswick |
| Section 232 copper | 50% | Semi-finished copper and copper-intensive products | No | Quebec |
The earlier IEEPA "fentanyl" tariffs were struck down by the US Supreme Court on February 20, 2026 (Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump). Section 338 excludes energy, potash, critical minerals and fish. Sources: White House proclamations, Congressional Research Service report R49349, Blakes US–Canada tariff timeline.
Canada's response. Since September 8, 2026, Canada charges counter-tariffs of 15%, 25% or 50% on about $27.6 billion of US imports, including steel, dairy, appliances, farm equipment, pulp and paper, electronics, furniture and clothing, on top of earlier counter-tariffs on US vehicles and steel and aluminum. These raise prices on some US-made goods in Canada. Manitoba and Saskatchewan are most affected: more than one in ten dollars of their US imports are on the list, and they have few other suppliers.
Tariff exposure, jobs and outlook by province
| Province | US exports, Jan–Aug 2026 vs 2024 | Exposure to Section 338 tariffs | Unemployment, Oct 2026 | GDP growth forecast 2026 / 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| British Columbia | −2.0% | High: 10%+ (July list: 13.7%) | 6.3% | 0.8% / 1.9% |
| Quebec | −8.0% | High: 10%+ (July list: 10.8%) | 5.7% | 0.4% / 1.1% |
| Ontario | +0.1% | High: 10%+ (July list: 9%), plus autos and steel | 7.3% | 1.0% / 1.8% |
| Nova Scotia | +3.0% | High: 10%+ after September additions | 6.2% | 1.4% / 1.9% |
| Manitoba | −23.6% | Limited, but high effective tariff rates | 5.0% | 1.0% / 1.9% |
| New Brunswick | +6.2% | Low (lumber hit by Section 232) | 7.4% | 1.0% / 1.8% |
| Prince Edward Island | +0.3% | Low | 7.4% | 1.8% / 2.3% |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | −17.1% | Low (mostly oil) | 8.7% | 2.3% / 2.6% |
| Saskatchewan | −1.7% | Very low (July list: about 1%) | 5.9% | 1.6% / 2.5% |
| Alberta | +3.7% | Very low (July list: about 1%) | 7.3% | 2.1% / 3.3% |
| Canada | −1.1% | About 5% of exports | 6.7% | 1.0% / 2.0% |
US exports: Statistics Canada table 12-10-0175-01, January–August of each year, current dollars; Newfoundland and Labrador's figure swings with a small number of oil shipments. Section 338 exposure: Desjardins Economics' October 29, 2026 analysis of the list in force (share of US-bound exports), with University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe's estimates for the original July 2026 list (share of all exports) in brackets. Unemployment: Labour Force Survey, October 2026 (released November 6, 2026). GDP forecasts: Desjardins Provincial Outlook, October 29, 2026; forecasts, not official figures.
- Totals hide the damage. Ontario's US exports are flat against 2024 overall, but vehicles and parts are down 10.6% and metal products 10.2%, offset by consumer goods and electronics; its unemployment rate rose to 7.3% in October, above the national 6.7%. Quebec's vehicle and parts exports to the US fell by almost half, and employment there has slipped for three straight quarters.
- Alberta leads on growth because energy is outside the newest tariffs and its population is still growing fast, but its unemployment rate jumped 0.9 points to 7.3% in October, the biggest rise of any province.
- Manufacturing is where the hit lands. Desjardins expects the Section 338 tariffs to weigh most on factory jobs in central Canada, BC and Nova Scotia.
Which industries and towns to watch
Province-wide numbers hide how concentrated the risk is. These are the industries under the heaviest US tariffs and the places where they are major employers.
| Industry | US tariff | Where it matters most |
|---|---|---|
| Autos and parts | 25% (Section 232) | Windsor, Oshawa, Oakville, Alliston, Cambridge, Ingersoll (Ontario) |
| Steel | Up to 50% (Section 232) | Hamilton and Sault Ste. Marie (Ontario), Regina (Saskatchewan) |
| Aluminum | Up to 50% (Section 232) | Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean, Bécancour, Baie-Comeau, Sept-Îles (Quebec), Kitimat (BC) |
| Softwood lumber and wood products | 10% plus duties; up to 50% on cabinets and furniture | BC Interior and North, Abitibi and Côte-Nord (Quebec), northern Ontario, New Brunswick |
| Alcohol, dairy, furniture, consumer goods | 50% or banned (Section 338) | Quebec, southern Ontario, BC wineries, Manitoba manufacturing |
| Oil, gas, potash | Excluded from Section 338 | Alberta, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador |
If you are choosing where to move, a job offer in one of these industries carries more risk than the same salary in health care, public administration or most services. For pay and living costs in each province, see salary by province and take-home pay by province; for cities inside a province, see Ontario, Quebec, BC and Alberta cities compared.
What the 2026 US midterm elections can change
Americans voted on November 3, 2026 for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and about a third of the Senate. Tariff policy toward Canada was an issue in some races, including the Senate race in Maine, which trades heavily with New Brunswick and Quebec.
Result: the Associated Press projected that Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate. As of November 4, a few races, including Senate seats in Alaska and Mississippi, were still too close to call, so final seat counts are not settled. The new Congress takes office on January 3, 2027. Canada's trade minister said the day after the vote that the federal strategy does not change, because the administration that set the tariffs remains in office (CBC, November 4, 2026). The rules for removing tariffs are the same as before the vote:
- The tariffs stay unless they are withdrawn or overturned. Section 338 and Section 232 tariffs were imposed by presidential proclamation. The President can change or end them at any time; Congress cannot simply vote them away.
- Congress can pass a law, but a veto needs two-thirds to override. Bills to repeal Section 338 or to require congressional approval for tariffs on allies have been introduced. Even if both chambers pass one, overriding a presidential veto takes two-thirds of the House and the Senate.
- What the change in control does affect: from January 2027, Democrats chair the committees, so expect hearings and investigations on tariffs, more pressure on the administration from states that trade with Canada, and a different tone in the CUSMA review.
- The next fixed date is the CUSMA review. The US declined to extend CUSMA on July 1, 2026, so it now goes through a joint review every year until 2036 unless all three countries agree to extend it. Written comments for the 2027 review are due to the US Trade Representative by January 12, 2027.
Economists quoted by Canadian media before the vote did not expect near-term tariff relief from any result, and nothing changed on November 4: every tariff in the table above is still in force. We will update this page if the tariffs on Canada change.
What this means if you are moving
- Moving from the US: tariffs mainly affect Canadian factory and resource jobs, not professional jobs that hire Americans. The bigger effect on your budget is Canada's counter-tariffs, which make some US-made goods (appliances, furniture, clothing, some foods) more expensive. See working remotely from Canada for a US company and Canada vs US taxes.
- Moving between provinces: Alberta and Saskatchewan have the lowest tariff exposure and the strongest growth forecasts; Ontario and Quebec have the most jobs at risk in manufacturing but also the largest service economies. See the moving between provinces checklist.
- Buying a home: towns that rely on one auto plant, steel mill, smelter or sawmill carry more risk than diversified cities with the same house prices.